Export growth may be slower than expected in Q2: HSBC

Despite a less rosy external picture, the domestic economy continued to gain traction. Retail sales growth hit a record high of over 55 per cent year-on-year, according to HSBC report “Vietnam at a glance – The old playbook” released on Wednesday.

Việt Nam saw a year-on-year increase of 17 per cent in exports in the first six months of 2022, but it will be hard for overseas shipments to meet expectations in the last half of the year, according to HSBC.

In its “Việt Nam at a glance” report released on August 17, HSBC said after the impressive export growth in H1, a weaker-than-expected pace has been recorded since the start of H2.

The main cause is a growth slowdown in the electronics industry, especially mobile phones. Samsung’s second-quarter results show that demand for consumer electronics is weakening, thus affecting smartphones, televisions and other segments.

While textile, garment and footwear exports rose by 30 per cent from a year earlier, the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association forecast that pace will likely slow going forward.

In July, import growth also slowed down to only 3.4 per cent compared to the double-digit growth in previous months, partly due to lower energy prices, thereby reducing import orders of such commodities as steel, coal, and crude oil.

The HSBC report showed that despite an unpredictable global economic situation, the domestic economy has continued to reap certain successes.

Retail sales posted a record growth rate of over 55 per cent last month compared to the same period last year. In particular, revenue of tourism-related sectors was considerable, witnessing a double-digit expansion for four straight months.

Also in July, Việt Nam attracted more than 350,000 foreign tourist arrivals, tripling the monthly average in H1, and bringing total visitors to the country so far to one million.