Ministry projects three economic growth scenarios to 2023

The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) has developed three forecast scenarios for the last six months of this year and next year.

Following the Government's regular meeting in June, the MPI developed a draft project to ensure macroeconomic stability, control inflation and secure large trade balances.

The draft will be reported to the Government Standing Committee within this month.

Last month, CPI grew by 3.18 per cent compared to the end of last year. In the first six months of the year, the price index of raw materials used for production increased by 6.04 per cent compared to the same period last year. Prices of many imported inputs also soared.

Petrol prices and input materials increased with the recovery of domestic consumption, which created inflationary pressure and high production costs, which in turn reduces production and slows down the recovery of production.

On the basis of the forecast of the domestic and international situation, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has developed three forecast scenarios for the last six months of this year and next year.

In the best scenario, the macro economy is stable, inflation is controlled at about four per cent, major trade balances are guaranteed, and economic growth this year will reach the set target and next year will reach the average target in the 2021-2025 period at between 6.5-7 per cent.

In the medium scenario, the macro economy is basically stable, inflation is higher than 4 per cent, but still under control, economic growth this year will reach the set target, and next year’s growth only approaches the average target in the 2021-2025 period.

With the low scenario, the macro economy will face many difficulties, inflation will increase, economic growth this year will reach the set target, and next year’s growth will be lower than the average target of the 2021-2025 period.