IMF maintains forecast for Vietnam’s 2023 GDP growth at 4.7%

Experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained their forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth at 4.7% in 2023 but expressed their optimism about the medium-term prospects, with GDP growth predicted to reach 5.8% in 2024 and 6.9% in 2025.

At the launch of the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook Update on October 18 in Singapore, the experts said that Vietnam's export-oriented economy is heavily impacted by falling external demand in 2023, but there is a solid foundation that supports Vietnam's economic growth as before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Shanaka Peiris, Division Chief of Regional Studies at the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department (APD), said that there are many signs of Vietnam's recovery in the fourth quarter of 2023, but it is difficult for the country to achieve its growth target for this year.

Vietnam is facing difficulties in the export, real estate and financial sectors, but its economy is recovering, he said.

When reform measures are implemented, Vietnam will overcome "short-term headwinds" and will maintain growth momentum in the medium term, based on integration into value supply chains as well as foreign direct investment capital flow.

According to the IMF, economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region is likely to hit 4.6% in 2023, up from 3.9% in 2022, despite a challenging global environment.

The region will continue to be a bright spot compared to global growth which is expected to reach 3% this year. However, the region's growth is forecast to decrease to 4.2% in 2024 because growth momentum is slowing down.

IMF Director for Asia-Pacific Krishna Srinivasan said that the global economic outlook is driven by continued recovery in consumer momentum in the US, but faces pressure from the real estate crisis in China, tightening policy stances around the world, the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increasing geo-economic fragmentation.

Although the global environment remains challenging, the Asia-Pacific region remains a bright spot, contributing about two-thirds of global growth, he said.