2025 coffee exports hit target, set for record $7.5 billion

Việt Nam exported an estimated 953,900 tonnes of coffee worth US$5.45 billion in the first six months of 2025, increasing by 5.3 per cent in volume and 67.5 per cent in value compared to the same period in 2024.

Coffee has once again emerged as a star performer among agro-forestry-fishery exports in the first half of 2025, with both volume and value registering strong growth despite ongoing global challenges in supply and climate conditions.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE), Việt Nam exported an estimated 953,900 tonnes of coffee worth US$5.45 billion in the first six months of 2025, increasing by 5.3 per cent in volume and 67.5 per cent in value compared to the same period in 2024.

The average export price surged by 59.1 per cent year-on-year, reaching $5,708.3 per tonne.

Germany, Italy and Spain remained Việt Nam’s top three coffee importers, accounting for 16.3, 7.9, and 7.4 per cent of total exports respectively. Notably, export value to Germany more than doubled in the first five months of the year, while Italy saw a 45.1 per cent rise and Spain 55.8 per cent.

Among Việt Nam’s top 15 export markets, the most significant increase came from Mexico, with export value soaring 71.6 times, while China recorded the lowest increase at 22.9 per cent.

Deputy Minister Phùng Đức Tiến highlighted that Việt Nam has already met its original 2025 coffee export target of $5.5 billion in just six months. With several months still ahead, the country is now expected to reach $7.5 billion in coffee exports by year-end, an increase of 36.9 per cent year-on-year.

“The bulk of coffee production typically occurs between December and April,” he said.

“So, exports in the second half of the year are not expected to be as high as in the first half. But if Việt Nam earns $2 billion in the final six months, the $7.5 billion target is well within reach,” Tiến said.

The outlook for Việt Nam’s coffee sector remains favourable despite some production concerns.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast that global coffee production in the 2024–25 season will reach 174.4 million bags, up 2.98 per cent compared to the previous crop. Meanwhile, global consumption is expected to be only 169.36 million bags, creating a potential surplus of more than nine million bags.

Major producers are expected to boost output, with Brazil reaching 65 million bags, Indonesia 11.25 million bags (up 2 per cent) and Việt Nam 31 million bags after October 2025 (up 6.9 per cent), expected to be harvested from October 2025.

Meanwhile, global coffee prices maintained their upward momentum. Robusta prices on the London exchange on July 9 rose sharply, with September 2025 futures reaching $3,568 per tonne (up $42 per tonne), while Arabica prices on the New York exchange climbed to 285.60 cents per pound for the same delivery month (up 2.6 per cent).

Looking ahead, Việt Nam’s coffee sector sees opportunities to strengthen its presence in premium markets. The United States, the world’s largest coffee consumer, remains a key target for Việt Nam’s high-quality, processed and instant coffee products. Brazil continues to dominate supply to the US, but Việt Nam’s robusta coffee is gaining traction in specialty and value-added segments.

Meanwhile, the European Union – currently the largest export market for Vietnamese coffee – is tightening sustainability standards under its new anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR).

Việt Nam is classified as a 'low-risk' country under the EU’s forest-risk commodity categorisation, which significantly reduces inspection rates on its exports to just 1 per cent instead of 3 per cent for the "medium-risk" group or 9 per cent for the "high-risk" group.

Nguyễn Đỗ Anh Tuấn, director of the MAE’s International Cooperation Department, emphasised that full traceability and data transparency are critical for Vietnamese exporters to comply with the EUDR. He added that local-level data collection must be synchronised and secure, yet accessible for both State management and enterprise reporting.

Deputy Minister Hoàng Trung urged swift action to move from the pilot stage to full implementation of the EUDR, ensuring that all export data, documentation, and technical requirements are completed before the January 1, 2026, enforcement deadline.

He believes that Việt Nam’s compliance with EU standards opens up new avenues for cooperation not only within Europe, but also in Asia and the Middle East. In particular, the coffee sector is encouraged to explore further opportunities in Northeast Asia – notably China, Japan and South Korea, as well as India – where competitive pricing and low transport costs favour Việt Nam’s exports.