VN-Index projected to reach 1,555 points by 2025: expert
The market concluded 2024 with the VN-Index standing at 1,266.78 points, marking an impressive growth of approximately 13 per cent, placing Việt Nam among the countries with the highest stock market growth rates of the year.
Although it did not witness gains as substantial as those in the US or Japanese markets, the VN-Index significantly outperformed regional peers such as India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and South Korea.
A key highlight of the stock market was the substantial net selling by foreign investors. Data indicates that foreign investors focused their sales on index-related stocks, slowing growth within this group.
Meanwhile, domestic capital flows showed a clear preference for midcap and penny stocks. In 2024, midcap and penny stocks experienced robust growth, with some groups seeing gains exceeding 100 per cent.
In recent weeks, capital has spread towards small and midcap stocks. This phase reflects investors proactively seeking opportunities to mitigate risks from foreign net selling pressure. "This movement demonstrates that market capital flows are dynamic and investors are actively seeking opportunities that align with each phase of the market," said Trần Hoàng Sơn, Market Strategy Director at VPBankS.
Sơn noted that the first half of 2025 is expected to remain relatively challenging, given the market's ongoing volatility. However, in the latter half of the year, investors should focus on blue-chip and large-cap stocks, as the narrative shifts towards Việt Nam’s potential market upgrade. Foreign investors are likely to favour large-cap stocks tied to major indices.
In the short term, Sơn predicted that small and midcap stocks might attract capital flows, while large-cap stocks may see slower growth. With moderate to low market liquidity, any stock group that attracts capital is likely to outperform the broader market.
According to the VPBankS Market Strategy Director, banking and securities are two highly attractive sectors. Sơn forecasts that banking profit growth will remain around 17.7 per cent in 2025, while securities firms are expected to see profit growth of approximately 15 per cent.
With such growth drivers, these two sectors are set to attract capital, especially during significant market corrections in 2025, offering investors opportunities to acquire banking and securities stocks at attractive valuations.
The third sector Sơn identified as promising is industrial real estate. Việt Nam is heavily investing in infrastructure, with multiple expressways launched this year, enhancing the country’s appeal to foreign direct investment (FDI) investors.
In recent years, escalating US-China tariff tensions have triggered significant FDI outflows from China and other countries. Conversely, Việt Nam has recorded substantial FDI inflows, which are expected to persist in 2025.
"I remain optimistic that FDI will continue flowing into Việt Nam in 2025, driven by improved economic growth, upgraded infrastructure and political stability. Additionally, I hope Donald Trump’s tax policies in 2025 will not adversely target Việt Nam. Beyond trade considerations, Trump’s tariff policies also aim to address drug smuggling and illegal immigration," Sơn said.
The analyst added that increased FDI inflows would directly benefit industrial real estate. Within this sector, before Trump's presidency, one of his companies had signed a partnership with KBC. Besides KBC, other firms such as Becamex and SZC are also well-positioned for positive growth in 2025.
Lastly, the oil and gas sector is also poised for solid performance next year. In 2024, the sector demonstrated significant but short-lived momentum, largely driven by developments related to Block B – Ô Môn projects.
In 2025, with continued economic growth, Việt Nam's focus on oil field exploration and new extraction projects is expected to make the oil and gas sector a focal point, particularly after price corrections in many stocks. Therefore, these stocks are likely to regain momentum in 2025.
