Rice exports forecast to have breakthrough opportunities in 2023

In 2023, rice exports are forecasted to have many breakthrough opportunities, thanks to the high price foundation of 2022 and China’s border reopening.

2022 rice exports are successful in both value and output

Looking back at the results of the rice industry in 2022, Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice President of the Vietnam Food Association, analyzed that this year saw fluctuations in the market, especially at the beginning of the year when rice prices went down but fluctuated in the middle of the third quarter. However, 2022 is still a quite successful year for Vietnamese food exporters and producers. In particular, rice exports to some major markets such as the Philippines recorded growth of nearly 30%.

Not only recording output exceeding the set plan, 2022 also marks the entry of Vietnamese rice into the Middle East and European markets with the “Made in Vietnam” brand at a high price of more than 1,000 USD per ton.

“In the European market, we are exporting under Trung An’s own brand with prices of over 1,000 USD per ton for ST24, ST25 fragrant rice. In the past year, we also expanded our exports to the Middle East and market share was kept stable in the Republic of Korea and Malaysia,” said Mr. Pham Thai Binh, General Director of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company.

Door continues to be “bright” in 2023

From the foundation of 2022, exporters forecast that, in 2023, rice exports will have many breakthrough opportunities.

Specifically, Mr. Do Ha Nam said that the high prices recorded at the end of the crop, especially at the end of 2022, will help rice exporters find contracts easier to negotiate in 2023.

“In previous years, rice prices were usually low at the end of the year, so import partners often chose that time to negotiate prices for the winter-spring crop. However, this year, we reached a high price at the end of the crop, so we also hoped that the contracts signed for the winter-spring crop in 2023 would be better. More importantly, the price increase will help farmers have more motivation to expand the area and improve productivity,” Nam said.

With the good price foundation, prospects will be seen in many markets such as the Philippines, China, Europe or Bangladesh.

For the Chinese market, the country’s border reopening is considered a positive signal for rice exporters. Vietnam often exports 2.5 to 3 million tons of food to the Chinese market, but in recent years, it only shipped around 1 million tons to the market.

“Since the end of last year, we see the Chinese market starting to be more stable and with the country’s reopening policy, we believe that in 2023, rice exports to China can reach 1 million tons,” Nam added.

At the end of November 2022, Bangladesh’s Minister of Food Sadhan Chandra Majumder visited Vietnam to work directly with the Southern Food Corporation (VINAFOOD II). At this meeting, Mr. Sadhan Chandra Majumder, affirmed that the country’s rice production is not enough to supply 170 million people and it still needs to import rice, with the main suppliers being India, Vietnam and Myanmar. Therefore, Bangladesh has agreed to extend the MOU on rice trade with Vietnam for another five years.

Earlier, VINAFOOD II served as a rice supplier under the MOU (memorandum of understanding) over the years to Bangladesh. Of which, the corporation provided 450,000 tons of rice to the market in 2011; 250,000 tons in 2017; 52,500 tons in 2021; and 230,000 tons in 2022. The extension of this MOU is expected to create more opportunities for Vietnamese rice to penetrate Bangladesh stably in the near future.

For the Philippine market, Vietnam’s largest rice consuming country, the Government of this country has recently decided to maintain rice import tax at 35%. The move will be good news for Vietnam’s rice exporters as it will ensure the stability of the market.

Besides, the forecast of the Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) of the Philippines said that the country may need to import at least 3 million tons of rice next year due to an ongoing shortage when rice production is lower than demand.