Opportunity for breakthrough in Vietnamese economy

Forecasts from international organisations indicate the possibility that global economic recovery will remain dim in 2024. In Vietnam, opportunities and challenges are intertwined, so the domestic economy is predicted to still face many challenges.

In that context, the target of GDP growth of 6-6.5% set in 2024 demonstrates the determination of the National Assembly and the Government to continue to restore and boost the sustainable development of the national economy and society.

Many observations suggest that the impact of the world economic decline accumulated since the COVID-19 period is likely to continue to affect the Vietnamese economy in the first half of 2024 before receiving more positive signs. However, the Vietnamese economy will still have a chance to recover better thanks to support policies issued in 2023. The driving forces regarding public investment, consumption, tourism, and exports will continue to be promoted, which will have a strong spillover effect on economic sectors, making an important contribution to the overall growth of the economy.

The settlement of outstanding problems, prolonged shortcomings, and obstacles in the real estate market and corporate bonds is expected to create more positive changes in production and business activities of the business community.

Regarding economic structure, the agricultural, forestry and fishery sectors are forecast to maintain their growth momentum, acting as an important “pedestal” for the economy. The industrial and construction sectors will still encounter many challenges, but production and business activities are gradually improving, which is the driving force to complete the growth target of 6-6.5% in 2024. The service sector is expected to be a bright spot¬¬¬¬ when some commercial areas can maintain growth momentum thanks to trade policies and promotion of domestic consumption.

According to economic experts, the growth of the Vietnamese economy in 2024 will be based on the main growth drivers, including institutional reform, improvements to the business investment environment, enhancement to competitiveness of the economy and businesses, acceleration of disbursement of public investment, and stimulation of domestic aggregate demand to boost consumption and export activities. Notably, Vietnam’s economic prospects are forecast to see many new growth drivers such as science-technology, innovation, digital economy, green economy, and circular economy, especially high-tech industries such as semiconductor chips, AI, electronics, and renewable energy.

Notably, credit rating agency Fitch Ratings recently forecast that Vietnam’s economic growth will reach 6.3% in 2024 and 7% in 2025. Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also predicted that Vietnam’s economy can maintain a growth rate of 6% and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that Vietnam will rank 20th in the world with a growth rate of 5.8% in 2024.

To successfully implement the 2024 Socio-Economic Development Plan, the Government has proposed key groups of tasks, solutions, and specific actions to bring policies into life. It is anticipated that the economy will face many unpredictable developments from the world’s geopolitical situation, thereby adversely affecting the domestic situation, but 2024 is defined to be a breakthrough time in the 5-year economic period from 2021 to 2025. Therefore, the entire political system must be determined to act with the highest effort, taking advantage of opportunities to accelerate and create breakthroughs.