Coffee, pepper prices forecast to keep rising due to supply shortages

The prices of Vietnamese coffee and pepper are forecast to continue increasing due to limited supply while the export of these products has also enjoyed relative growth, according to insiders.

Domestic coffee prices continuously set new records and are about to approach 100,000 VND (about 4 USD) per kg. Currently, the average purchase price of coffee in Central Highlands provinces is 98,600 VND per kg.

Vietnam shipped nearly 600,000 tonnes of coffee abroad in the first quarter of this year, earning 1.9 billion USD, up only 3% in volume but up 54% in value year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

Coffee is the second biggest export turnover earner among agricultural products, just behind wood products. It is attributable to the fact that coffee prices have increased by 43.5% over the same period last year and reached an average of 3,181 USD per tonne.

Export coffee prices have increased, but there’s not much coffee left in stock. According to the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (Vicofa), Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2023-2024 crop will decline by 20% compared to the previous crop, to more than 1.33 million tonnes.

Regarding pepper, preliminary statistics of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) showed that Vietnam exported 12,368 tonnes of pepper worth 53 million USD in the first 16 days of March.

Export prices averaged 4,022 USD per tonne during January - February, up 28.7% from the same period last year. In March, prices of domestic pepper increased 500 - 2,000 VND per kg.

VPSA Chairwoman Hoang Thi Lien attributed the surge of pepper prices to low inventories and strong demand in the US market in the last three months of 2023. The late harvest season in Dak Nong province was also a problem, she said, adding that a temporary shortage of supply led to an increase in domestic prices.

Currently, many localities are accelerating pepper harvesting in the 2023-2024 crop but farmers are delaying their sales with expectations of higher prices, she added.

Echoing her opinion, Nguyen Thi Thanh Huyen, Deputy Director of Prosi Thang Long Company, said that pepper exports have recorded strong growth since 2023.

Domestic pepper prices have also increased since December last year and many farmers and businesses expected that the export of pepper will thrive in 2024, she noted.